原创 悉尼大学商务见解
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After four extraordinary decades in which China’s population has swelled from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on track to turn down this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961.
继中国人口在过去四十年间从6.6亿猛增到14亿之后，中国的人口今年有望下降，这是其自1959-1961年大饥荒以来首次出现人口下降。
The world’s largest nation by population is starting to shrink.
世界上人口最多的国家人口规模开始缩小。
In 2021 China’s population grew by 480,000 – which is a baby sized increase compared to the annual growth rate of around eight million common a decade ago.
2021年，中国人口净增长48万人，与十年前大约800万的年增长率相比，这只能算是小规模增长。
For international comparison, China’s fertility rate (births per woman) was just 1.15 in 2021 compared to 1.6 in Australia and the US, and 1.3 in Japan which has been aging for decades now. In Nigeria the average births per woman is 5.2. The continent of South America, which in the middle of last century had the world’s highest population growth, is now growing more slowly than Africa, Oceania and Asia.
与国际水平相比，2021年，中国的生育率（每名妇女的胎数）仅为1.15，而澳大利亚和美国的生育率为1.6，而已经老龄化数十年的日本的生育率为1.3。尼日利亚的平均生育率为5.2。南美洲大陆在上世纪中叶曾经是世界人口增长最快的大陆，但其目前的人口增长速度比非洲、大洋洲和亚洲都要慢。
A loosening of China’s one child policy in 2016 and the introduction of a three-child policy, supported by tax and other incentives, have failed to halt the baby dive.
2016年，中国宣布放松独生子女政策，后续又引入由税收和其他激励等配套措施所支持的三孩政策，但这些举措都未能阻止其婴儿出生率跳水。
The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China’s population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.
上海社会科学院团队预测， 2021年之后，中国人口将年均下降1.1%，到2100年，中国的人口将下降到5.87亿，不到今天的一半。
The implications are serious: while there are currently 100 working age people supporting every 20 elderly people, by the turn of the century 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
这意味着严重的后果：虽然目前每20名老年人由100名适工年龄人群负责赡养，但到了本世纪末，100名适工年龄中国人将不得不赡养多达120名老年人。
And China is far from alone: this phenomenon is in-keeping with the demographic change megatrend which predicts that the world’s population will peak by the end of this century. The combination of people living longer and having fewer children is a global experience, with the exception of Africa.
中国并非个例：这种现象符合人口变化的大趋势，据预测，世界人口将在本世纪末达到峰值。除非洲之外，寿命延长和生育下降是一个全球性现象。
Additionally, it’s China’s economic heft that makes this an important issue for the rest of the world. Any shift in China’s economic priorities – spending more on pensions and health care, higher wages, will inevitably change what it imports, produces and exports. As the world’s single biggest trading partner, every other nation in the world will have to adjust to China’s policy settings.
此外，中国的经济实力使之成为世界其他地区所面临的一个重要问题。中国经济重点的任何转变（例如，在养老金和医疗保健方面的更多支出、更高薪酬）都将不可避免地改变其进口、生产和出口。作为全球最大的贸易伙伴，世界上的所有其他国家都将不得不适应中国的政策环境。
